# Absorption — the gap between what China builds and what it can use

The core of the China buildout story is **not that renewables are being built** — it's
that **the grid installs far faster than it can absorb them**. (as of H1 2026; NEA monthly to 2026-07)

## The reading

- Wind + solar are **~48.5% of installed capacity** (1,980 GW of 4,080 GW, NEA, 2026-07) but
  supplied only **24.6% of generation in H1 2026** — an **absorption ratio of ~0.51×**.
- Average generator utilization fell from **310 h (2023-12)** to **279 h (2026-07)** (NEA monthly):
  more panel and turbine capacity, less output per unit.

## H1 2026: more wind and solar thrown away

Two different measures, both rising:

| Measure | H1 2025 | H1 2026 | Publisher |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Official wind utilization | 93.2% (6.8% curtailed) | **90.9%** (9.1% curtailed) | NEA |
| Official solar utilization | 94% (≈6% curtailed) | **91.4%** (8.6% curtailed) | NEA |
| Estimated wind + solar curtailment incl. unreported | — | **360 TWh, +49% y/y** | CREA & GEM |
| Combined curtailment rate incl. unreported | 19.7% | **26.1%** | CREA & GEM |

- **Official (NEA):** counts the curtailment grid operators report. Sources: NEA press-conference
  transcript, 30 July 2026, https://www.nea.gov.cn/20260730/3ce671c387574eeeb120fc3825be0399/c.html
  (H1 2026); NEA Q3 2025 press-conference transcript, 31 July 2025,
  https://www.nea.gov.cn/20250731/83ffa46373ec42dd99e0e3271028c151/c.html (H1 2025; NEA rounds solar to 94%).
  Confidence: verified (read on nea.gov.cn).
- **Estimate incl. unreported (CREA & GEM):** reported curtailment plus a weather-modelled estimate of
  unreported curtailment (regressions on 2020–2023 monthly utilization and weather). The 360 TWh
  exceeded the **258 TWh** growth in power demand over the same period. Source: CREA & Global Energy
  Monitor, "Built for backup, contracted to run" (H1 2026 coal power review), 6 Aug 2026,
  https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/CREA_GEM_China_Coal-power-review_H1-2026.pdf
  Confidence: verified (read in the report).
- The curtailed shares (100 minus utilization) and the year-on-year changes (−2.3 pp wind, ≈−2.6 pp
  solar) are ChinaQueue's arithmetic on the two NEA releases, not NEA-stated figures. NEA gave the
  H1 2025 solar rate only as a whole number (94%), so the solar figures derived from it are
  approximate.

## Why the gap persists: coal has a contract floor

Coal generators are still expected to sign annual contracts covering **60–70% of their previous
year's delivered electricity** (CREA & GEM's summary of the 2026 medium- and long-term contract rules:
70% of prior-year on-grid electricity, which provinces may lower but in principle not below 60%).
Meanwhile **30 GW of new coal** entered operation in H1 2026 (+43% y/y) against **2.7 GW retired** —
about 11 GW built per GW retired. Source: the same CREA & GEM report (coal-only plant tracker, not NEA
thermal, which includes gas).

## Boundaries

- Curtailment, contract and coal-build figures are **curated release numbers** from NEA and CREA/GEM,
  not a ChinaQueue-measured timeseries. Each is cited above and in `/data/h1_2026.json`.
- A "401 TWh" curtailment figure circulating in press coverage does not appear in any CREA or GEM
  publication and is not used here.
- The capacity/generation split and utilization hours are NEA-anchored (`/data/nea_monthly.json`).
  See [methodology.md](https://chinaqueue.com/methodology.md) for the claim boundaries.

## Data

- [h1_2026.json](https://chinaqueue.com/data/h1_2026.json) — curated, cited H1 2026 snapshot
  (curtailment, CREA/GEM estimate, coal contracts, storage, additions).
- [nea_monthly.json](https://chinaqueue.com/data/nea_monthly.json) — NEA monthly capacity and utilization hours.