{
  "as_of": "2026-08",
  "name": "Coal in the first half of 2026: built, retired, run",
  "compiled": "2026-10-14",
  "note": "Curated, cited snapshot. Every block lists its original publisher, a link, the period it covers and a confidence level. Ratios and differences are computed by the page, not stored here.",
  "confidence_key": {
    "verified": "Read on the original publisher's own page or document.",
    "secondary": "Reported by a named outlet or compilation that cites the original publisher; the original was not read."
  },
  "build": {
    "label": "Coal power capacity, first half of 2026 (coal only)",
    "period": "2026-01 to 2026-06",
    "values": {
      "commissioned_gw": 30,
      "commissioned_yoy_pct": 43,
      "retired_gw": 2.7,
      "construction_starts_gw": 25.4,
      "permitted_gw": 8.6,
      "permitted_yoy_pct": -63,
      "pipeline_gw": 274,
      "under_construction_gw": 204,
      "permitted_not_started_gw": 70,
      "utilisation_hours": 1998,
      "utilisation_hours_prior": 2056,
      "coal_generation_yoy_pct": 3.4
    },
    "record_note": "The highest first-half commissioning total since 2016.",
    "publisher": "Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM)",
    "title": "Built for backup, contracted to run: China's coal support system risks crowding out clean power (China coal power review, H1 2026)",
    "url": "https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/CREA_GEM_China_Coal-power-review_H1-2026.pdf",
    "page_url": "https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/built-for-backup-contracted-to-run-chinas-coal-support-system-risks-crowding-out-clean-power/",
    "published": "2026-08-06",
    "confidence": "verified",
    "excerpt": "In the first half of 2026, 30 GW of coal power capacity entered operation, 43% more than in H1 2025 and the highest first-half year total recorded since 2016. ... Only 2.7 GW was retired. ... Another 25.4 GW started construction during the first half of 2026. Approximately 204 GW of coal power remained under construction, and 70 GW was permitted but had not yet entered construction. Together, the 274 GW ... Only 8.6 GW received permits in H1 2026, down 63% year-on-year. ... Coal power generation rose 3.4% year-on-year in the first six months ... Average utilisation declined from 2,056 hours in the first half of 2025 to around 1,998 hours, a decrease of 2.9%.",
    "notes": "Coal-only figures from the CREA/GEM plant tracker; not comparable with NEA 'thermal' (which includes gas). PDF dated August 2026; the CREA publication page is dated 6 August 2026 and says 'the highest first-half year level in a decade'. The 274 GW pipeline is 204 GW under construction plus 70 GW permitted but not started."
  },
  "nea_thermal_additions": {
    "label": "Official thermal power capacity added, first half of 2026 (coal, gas and other thermal)",
    "period": "2026-01 to 2026-06",
    "values": {
      "thermal_added_gw": 38.36
    },
    "publisher": "National Energy Administration (NEA), via a ChinaBaogao (Guanyan Tianxia) data compilation",
    "title": "H1 2026 national power statistics compilation (NEA data)",
    "url": "https://www.chinabaogao.com/data/202608/811764.html",
    "published": "2026-08-11",
    "confidence": "secondary",
    "excerpt": "火电新增 3836万千瓦",
    "notes": "NEA 'thermal' (火电) includes gas and other thermal plants, so it is not comparable with the CREA/GEM coal-only 30 GW. The NEA release itself was not read."
  },
  "nbs_thermal_output": {
    "label": "Thermal power generation, year on year (plants above designated size)",
    "unit": "% change on the same period a year earlier",
    "rows": [
      {
        "label": "January–June 2026",
        "kind": "cumulative",
        "period": "2026-01 to 2026-06",
        "yoy_pct": 2.9,
        "publisher": "National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), via a ChinaBaogao (Guanyan Tianxia) data compilation",
        "title": "H1 2026 thermal power compilation (NBS data)",
        "url": "https://www.chinabaogao.com/data/202608/811755.html",
        "published": "2026-08-11",
        "confidence": "secondary",
        "excerpt": "规模以上企业火力发电量 30282.4亿千瓦时，同比增长2.9%",
        "notes": "NBS original table not read."
      },
      {
        "label": "June 2026",
        "kind": "month",
        "period": "2026-06",
        "yoy_pct": 0.5,
        "publisher": "National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), reported by Xinhua Finance",
        "title": "June 2026 energy production (Xinhua Finance report of NBS data)",
        "url": "https://www.cnfin.com/yw-lb/detail/20260715/4440690_1.html",
        "published": "2026-07-15",
        "confidence": "secondary",
        "excerpt": "其中，规上工业火电同比增长0.5%，增速比5月份放缓1.6个百分点",
        "notes": "NBS original (stats.gov.cn) not reachable; Xinhua Finance page read."
      },
      {
        "label": "August 2026",
        "kind": "month",
        "period": "2026-08",
        "yoy_pct": -4.3,
        "publisher": "National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), reported by Xinhua Finance",
        "title": "August 2026 energy production (Xinhua Finance report of NBS data)",
        "url": "https://www.cnfin.com/yw-lb/detail/20260915/4469929_1.html",
        "published": "2026-09-15",
        "confidence": "secondary",
        "excerpt": "其中，规上工业火电同比下降4.3%，降幅比7月份扩大0.8个百分点",
        "notes": "NBS original (stats.gov.cn) not reachable; Xinhua Finance page read. The same release gives total generation for January–August (+2.4%) but no cumulative thermal figure."
      }
    ],
    "gap_note": "No January–August cumulative thermal figure appears in any release we could read, so none is shown. The monthly numbers mean thermal output fell year on year in August; they do not show whether it rose or fell over January–August."
  },
  "policy": [
    {
      "key": "ballast",
      "term": "ballast stone",
      "term_zh": "压舱石",
      "date": "2024-06-20",
      "statement": "An NEA official told a State Council Information Office press conference that coal plays the role of a \"ballast stone\" in China's energy security.",
      "speaker": "Li Fulong, director of the NEA Development and Planning Department",
      "publisher": "State Council Information Office press conference, reported by Xinhua Finance",
      "title": "SCIO press conference, 20 June 2024 (Xinhua Finance report)",
      "url": "https://www.cnfin.com/hg-lb/detail/20240620/4064376_1.html",
      "published": "2024-06-20",
      "confidence": "secondary",
      "excerpt": "煤炭在我国能源安全保障中发挥着“压舱石”作用。",
      "notes": "SCIO transcript not read. The phrase does not appear in the 2026 coal, energy-system or power-system plans, which use 'backstop' (兜底保障) and 'basic energy' (基础能源) instead."
    },
    {
      "key": "backstop_2030",
      "term": "backstop",
      "term_zh": "兜底保障",
      "date": "2026-08-10",
      "statement": "Coal Industry Development Plan for the 15th Five-Year period: by 2030 coal's backstop capacity is further strengthened and coal consumption peaks.",
      "speaker": "NDRC and NEA",
      "publisher": "National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and National Energy Administration (NEA)",
      "title": "Coal Industry Development Plan for the 15th Five-Year period (NDRC Energy [2026] No. 979), signed 6 July 2026",
      "url": "https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz/202608/P020260810576358158489.pdf",
      "notice_url": "https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz/202608/t20260810_1406952.html",
      "published": "2026-08-10",
      "confidence": "verified",
      "excerpt": "到 2030 年，煤炭兜底保障能力进一步增强 ... 煤炭消费实现达峰",
      "notes": "Plan PDF and NDRC notice page (发改能源〔2026〕979号, signed 2026-07-06, posted 2026-08-10) read. The plan sets no 2030 coal output target."
    }
  ],
  "generated_at": "2026-10-14T10:17:16"
}