{
  "as_of": "2025-12",
  "name": "Desert, Gobi and barren-land wind-solar mega-bases (沙戈荒)",
  "source": "NDRC/NEA \"Plan for the Layout of Large Wind and Solar Bases Focused on Desert, Gobi and Barren Areas\" + NEA 2025 progress",
  "target_gw_2030": 455,
  "target_2030_selfuse_gw": 140,
  "target_2030_export_gw": 315,
  "target_gw_2025": 200,
  "target_2025_selfuse_gw": 50,
  "target_2025_export_gw": 150,
  "first_batch_2024_gw": 92,
  "first_batch_operating_2024_gw": 90.8,
  "first_batch_2025_status": "First batch largely built out through 2025; NEA 2025 review: basically complete, non-fossil consumption share reached 21.7%.",
  "batch_commissioning": {
    "note": "Primary NEA/NBS figures supersede the earlier approximate 92/90.8 GW roundings where they differ.",
    "first_batch_planned": {
      "bases": 50,
      "gw": 97.4,
      "scope": "18 provinces + the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Xinjiang et al.)",
      "announced": "2021-11 (first-batch project list for large wind and solar bases focused on desert, Gobi and barren areas)"
    },
    "first_batch_status_end_2024": {
      "built_gw": 91.99,
      "built_pct": 95,
      "operating_gw": 90.79
    },
    "shagedi_new_added_14th": {
      "gw_added_2021_2025": 130,
      "source": "NDRC press-conference series on completing the 14th Five-Year Plan (Li Chuangjun, 2025-10-29): desert mega-bases have become the new front for wind and solar construction, adding over 130 GW"
    },
    "first_export_base": {
      "name": "Northern Tianshan Gobi wind-solar mega-base, Xinjiang (Santanghu, Hami; supplies the third Xinjiang power-export corridor, Xinjiang to Chongqing)",
      "capacity_gw": 14.2,
      "mix": "coal 4.0 GW + wind 7.0 GW + solar PV 3.0 GW + concentrated solar 0.2 GW",
      "storage": "1.2 GW / 4.8 GWh of battery storage",
      "renewable_share_pct": 70,
      "first_units": "2 × 1 GW coal units completed 168-hour full-load trial runs on 2025-06-13",
      "target": "2025-12 (all units except concentrated solar)",
      "annual_twh": 36,
      "to_sink": "via the Hami-Chongqing ±800 kV UHV DC line"
    },
    "second_and_third_batch": {
      "status": "rolling; NEA 2025-01: will keep pushing construction of the second and third batches, building on first-batch experience",
      "focus": "Three-North belt, absorption-first, thermal + renewables co-delivery"
    }
  },
  "anchor_desert_gw_2030": {
    "note": "Within the 455 GW 2030 plan, the four anchor deserts (Kubuqi / Ulan Buh / Tengger / Badain Jaran) carry ~284 GW; coal-mining subsidence zones and other desert/Gobi areas make up the remainder.",
    "gw": 284
  },
  "anchor_deserts": [
    "Kubuqi",
    "Ulan Buh",
    "Tengger",
    "Badain Jaran"
  ],
  "second_batch": {
    "note": "Second-batch bases concentrate in the Three-North (Northeast/North/Northwest) belt; policy stresses local absorption and joint thermal + renewables delivery beyond the UHV export path.",
    "focus": "Three-North belt, absorption-first, coal-flexibility co-delivery"
  },
  "first_export_base": {
    "note": "China's first desert mega-base built for renewable *export* brought its first units on-line in 2025, targeting all-generators-except-concentrated-solar operational by end-2025.",
    "milestone_2025": "first units on-line 2025; non-CSP fully operational targeted by 2025-12"
  },
  "key_bases": [
    "Kubuqi base (Inner Mongolia)",
    "Ulan Buh base (western Inner Mongolia)",
    "Tengger base (western Inner Mongolia / Ningxia)",
    "Badain Jaran base (Gansu / Inner Mongolia border)"
  ],
  "implications": [
    "The 315 GW export tranche is the load for the UHV grid tracking on /transmission — these bases only pay off if the long-haul corridors move the power east.",
    "284 GW across four deserts ≈ 62% of the whole 455 GW program, concentrated in the Inner Mongolia/Gansu/Ningxia belts.",
    "First-batch progress (92 GW built, 90.8 GW operating end-2024) is the honest denominator: the program has banked ~20% of its 2030 ceiling, with multiples still to build."
  ],
  "caveats": [
    "Targets are program-planning figures (in progress), not guaranteed capacity; progress figures mix construction-complete vs grid-connected operating.",
    "Second-batch project lists are rolling; figures here are the plan-level structure, not an exhaustive project census."
  ],
  "generated_at": "2026-10-14T10:17:16"
}