{
  "title": "Green Electricity Certificates (GECs)",
  "as_of": "2025-12 (full-year 2025)",
  "source": "National Energy Administration (NEA) monthly \"National Renewable Energy Green Electricity Certificate Issuance and Trading Data\"",
  "sources": [
    "NEA 2025-12 bulletin (nea.gov.cn 20260122)",
    "NEA 2024-12 bulletin (nea.gov.cn 20250124)"
  ],
  "summary": {
    "note": "Green Electricity Certificates (GEC, 绿证) are the market instrument that prices China's clean electrons — one certificate per 1 MWh of renewable generation. Tracked here so a reader sees issuance vs. trading and the market price of green power. Monthly cadence from NEA.",
    "issued_2025_b": 29.47,
    "tradable_2025_b": 18.93,
    "traded_2025_b": 9.3,
    "green_power_traded_2025_b": 2.5,
    "issued_2024_b": 47.34,
    "tradable_2024_b": 31.58,
    "traded_2024_b": 4.46,
    "cumulative_issued_end2024_b": 49.55,
    "cumulative_issued_end2025_b": 79.0,
    "cumulative_traded_end2024_b": 5.53,
    "cumulative_traded_end2025_b": 14.8
  },
  "annual": [
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "issued_b": 16.45,
      "traded_b": 0.77,
      "note": "2023: 530 million tradable certificates restored; GEC market reset"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "issued_b": 47.34,
      "tradable_b": 31.58,
      "traded_b": 4.46,
      "note": "single-month trading first topped 100 million in Dec-2024"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "issued_b": 29.47,
      "tradable_b": 18.93,
      "traded_b": 9.3,
      "note": "trade volume doubled vs 2024; 250 million traded via green-power deals"
    }
  ],
  "price_vintage_yuan_per_cert": {
    "as_of": "2025-12",
    "2024_vintage": 1.12,
    "2025_vintage": 5.15,
    "note": "Price is per certificate, set by vintage (production year of the underlying electricity). 2025-vintage trades at ~4.6x 2024-vintage — older-vintage certificates are heavily discounted."
  },
  "caveats": [
    "2024 was an inflated issuance year as NEA backfilled 2018-2022 non-tradable certificates for registered legacy projects — the drop from 4.734 billion to 2.947 billion in 2025 is backfill washing out, not a real output decline.",
    "Vintage-price spread is the key market signal: demand is for current-year green power, not backlog certificates."
  ],
  "generated_at": "2026-10-14T10:17:16"
}