{
  "as_of": "2026-08",
  "name": "Nuclear — the baseload constant",
  "source": "National Energy Administration (NEA); China Nuclear Energy Association (CNEA), \"China Nuclear Energy Development Report (2026)\"; State Council executive meeting, 2026-07-31; \"15th Five-Year Plan for New-Type Power System Construction\" (NDRC Energy [2026] No. 942); 21st Century Business Herald; CGN / CNNC company announcements; National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA) monthly operating reports; People's Daily; Xinhua",
  "headlines": [
    {
      "value": "62",
      "label": "commercial units, Jun-2026",
      "sub": "66.14 GW (+8.6% y/y)"
    },
    {
      "value": "64",
      "label": "units approved since 2019 restart",
      "sub": ">¥1 trillion cumulative direct investment"
    },
    {
      "value": "8",
      "label": "15th Five-Year Plan (十五五) first-batch units, 2026-07-31",
      "sub": "4 projects, >¥170 billion; ripple ~¥500 billion"
    },
    {
      "value": "110 GW",
      "label": "2030 operating target",
      "sub": "\"15th Five-Year Plan for New-Type Power System Construction\", 2026-08-03"
    },
    {
      "value": "36",
      "label": "units under construction (CNNC+CGN, H1-26)",
      "sub": "CNNC 18 / CGN Hualong One 18 under construction"
    }
  ],
  "fleet": {
    "operating_units_2026_06": 62,
    "operating_gw_2026_06": 6614,
    "operating_gw_2026_06_pct_yoy": 8.6,
    "operating_units_2025_end": 59,
    "under_construction_units": 53,
    "under_construction_gw": 6293,
    "operating_plus_pipeline_units_2025_end": 112,
    "operating_plus_pipeline_gw_2025_end": 12500,
    "operating_plus_pipeline_label": "operating + approved or under construction",
    "operating_plus_pipeline_period": "end-2025",
    "operating_plus_pipeline_source": {
      "publisher": "Yicai (CBN), reporting national nuclear totals; earlier reported by People's Daily (Nov 2025)",
      "title": "110 GW: China's 2030 nuclear target is set (Yicai, 25 June 2026)",
      "title_zh": "1.1亿千瓦！中国核电2030目标明确",
      "url": "https://www.yicai.com/news/103246778.html",
      "published": "2026-06-25",
      "confidence": "secondary",
      "excerpt": "大陆地区在运及核准在建核电机组已达112台，装机规模1.25亿千瓦。",
      "notes": "125 GW is NOT installed capacity: it adds reactors in operation (59 units, about 62.5 GW at end-2025) to reactors approved or under construction (53 units, 62.93 GW). Operating capacity alone was 66.14 GW in June 2026."
    },
    "note": "59 units in operation / 62.48 GW at 2025-11 (People's Daily); 62 in commercial operation / 66.14 GW by 2026-06 (NEA). A further 53 units / 62.93 GW were approved or under construction at end-2025. Operating plus approved or under construction came to 112 units / about 125 GW, reported as the world's largest by combined scale; operating capacity alone is about half of that."
  },
  "generation": {
    "twh_2025": 4852,
    "twh_2025_pct_yoy": 7.6,
    "share_of_total_gen_2025": 4.6,
    "share_of_non_fossil_2025": 11.4,
    "avg_util_hours_2025": 7809,
    "load_factor_2025": 89.1,
    "fleet_hours_2025": 4670.19,
    "fleet_hours_pct_yoy_2025": 4.91,
    "note": "485.2 TWh in 2025 (+7.6%); average utilization hours 7,809 (load factor 89.1%), +126h. 4.6% of national generation, 11.4% of non-fossil generation."
  },
  "approvals_2019_restart": {
    "total_units": 64,
    "total_investment_twh": ">¥1 trillion",
    "last_batch_date": "2026-07-31",
    "last_batch": {
      "units": 8,
      "projects": 4,
      "investment": ">¥170 billion",
      "ripple_investment": "~¥500 billion",
      "list": "Zhuanghe 1-2, Liaoning (Hualong One); Jinqimen 3-4, Zhejiang (Hualong One); Huizhou 5-6 (Hualong One 2.0, 1217MW); Laiyang 1-2, Shandong (Guohe One, 1543MW)"
    },
    "note": "The 2026-07-31 State Council executive meeting approved the first batch of the 15th Five-Year Plan — for the first time led by Gen-III pressurized water reactors (PWRs), complemented by Guohe One's large-capacity passive design. 64 units approved since the 2019 restart, with direct investment of more than ¥1 trillion."
  },
  "approvals_by_year": {
    "label": "Reactors approved by the State Council, by year",
    "unit": "reactor units",
    "rows": [
      {
        "year": 2022,
        "units": 10,
        "meetings": [
          "2022-04-20",
          "2022-09-13"
        ]
      },
      {
        "year": 2023,
        "units": 10,
        "meetings": [
          "2023-07-31",
          "2023-12-29"
        ]
      },
      {
        "year": 2024,
        "units": 11,
        "meetings": [
          "2024-08-19"
        ]
      },
      {
        "year": 2025,
        "units": 10,
        "meetings": [
          "2025-04-27"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "publisher": "State Council executive meetings; yearly totals as tallied by Yicai (CBN)",
    "title": "10 nuclear units newly approved, expected to drive over ¥200 billion of investment (Yicai, 28 April 2025)",
    "title_zh": "10台核电机组新获核准：预计拉动投资超2000亿元，哪些公司将受益",
    "url": "https://www.yicai.com/news/102592672.html",
    "published": "2025-04-28",
    "confidence": "secondary",
    "excerpt": "2022-2023年均核准了10台核电机组；2024年更是有史以来第一次核准了11台机组。… 本次核准的核电机组共10台",
    "notes": "Yearly totals read on Yicai; the 2025 total is the single 27 April 2025 batch of five projects and 10 units (The Paper, https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30730887), and no later 2025 batch was found. Meeting dates: 2024-08-19 from an NNSA reprint of the State Council notice (https://nnsa.mee.gov.cn/tpxw/202408/t20240820_1084209.html); 2022 and 2023 dates from news reports of each meeting. State Council notices on gov.cn were not read. 2026 so far: 8 units on 2026-07-31 (see last_batch).",
    "streak_note": "At least 10 reactors a year in each of 2022–2025; the first 2026 batch (31 July) was 8."
  },
  "reactor_tech": {
    "hualong_one": {
      "commercial": 10,
      "construction_or_approved": 37,
      "note": "The Gen-III PWR design with the most units installed worldwide; Fuqing 5 (the global first-of-a-kind unit) has run safely for 1,000 consecutive days and delivered more than 37 TWh to the grid."
    },
    "guohe_one": {
      "capacity_mw": 1543,
      "note": "One of the world's largest passive PWRs by single-unit capacity; led by SPIC, suited to large-capacity sites on the northern coast, complementing Hualong One north and south."
    },
    "htgr": {
      "note": "The Gen-IV high-temperature gas-cooled reactor at Shidaowan entered commercial operation in 2023 — the world's first commercial Gen-IV reactor."
    },
    "linglong_one": {
      "note": "The world's first land-based commercial small modular reactor to pass an IAEA safety review (ACP100, Changjiang, Hainan); core equipment in commissioning, grid connection expected in 2026; ~1 TWh of output a year, supplying ~520,000 Hainan households; 220 kV main-power back-feed energized successfully."
    },
    "spectrum": "Two indigenous Gen-III designs (Hualong One / Guohe One) in parallel serial production, plus commercial demonstrations of the HTGR and the small modular reactor → a complete spectrum covering large reactors, industrial-heating reactors and small modular reactors."
  },
  "plan_15th": {
    "target_2030_gw": "~110 GW",
    "target_2030_gw_value": 110,
    "target_2030_source": {
      "publisher": "National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and National Energy Administration (NEA)",
      "title": "Plan for Building a New-Type Energy System in the 15th Five-Year period",
      "url": "https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xwdt/tzgg/202606/P020260625613973397386.pdf",
      "published": "2026-06-25",
      "confidence": "verified",
      "excerpt": "2030年在运核电装机达到1.1亿千瓦左右"
    },
    "policy": "Gen-III PWR technology as the mainstay; keep a steady construction pace and develop actively, safely and in an orderly way. Faster R&D and deployment of small reactors and Gen-IV reactors is listed among the key technology-and-equipment breakthrough tasks.",
    "overtake_us": "Operating nuclear capacity is expected to overtake the US before 2030, becoming the world's largest (China Nuclear Energy Development Report 2026)."
  },
  "operators_h1_2026": {
    "cnnc": {
      "in_op_units": 27,
      "in_op_gw": 2621.2,
      "under_constr_approved_units": 18,
      "under_constr_approved_gw": 2067.5,
      "gen_twh_h1": 979.72,
      "gen_twh_h1_pct_yoy": -1.89,
      "avg_util_hours_h1": 3738,
      "note": "CNNC (601985) announcement, 2026-07-03: 27 controlled units in operation / 26.212 GW; 18 under construction or approved / 20.675 GW. Zhangzhou 2 entered commercial operation on 2026-01-01 → Zhangzhou plant H1 generation +60.8%."
    },
    "cgn": {
      "under_constr_hualong": 18,
      "tailin_1_commercial": true,
      "nanning_zao_fuel_loaded": true,
      "note": "CGN's Hualong One serial build: 18 units under construction; Taipingling 1 (Guangdong) grid-connected (the first Hualong One clean power for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area); San'ao 1 (Zhejiang) fuel loaded and first turbine roll on nuclear steam achieved → final push to grid connection; Hualong One 2.0 demonstration project secured, 3.0 being planned. (China Daily / CGN, 2026-03-05)"
    },
    "note": "CNNC: 27 controlled units in operation / 26.212 GW, 18 under construction or approved / 20.675 GW; CGN: 18 Hualong One units in serial construction — two operators alone account for the bulk of the 62 in-operation + 53 under-construction national totals."
  },
  "thrive_declaration": {
    "joined": "2026-03",
    "countries": 38,
    "goal": "Triple global nuclear capacity from 2020 levels by 2050",
    "note": "launched by 22 countries; China formally joined in 2026-03"
  },
  "why_it_matters": [
    "China's nuclear fleet is its largest single non-fossil baseload pillar — 62 commercial units / 66.14 GW, ~4.6% of national generation, and the only zero-carbon dispatchable stone to hold the renewables-heavy grid still (wind+solar now ~47% of installed, but intermittent).",
    "The buildout is now standardization-led: 64 units approved since the 2019 restart (>¥1 trillion direct), heading into a double peak — ~44 GW of commissioning runway across 2026-30 while construction stays at record levels.",
    "Two fully-indigenous Gen-III lines (Hualong One / Guohe One) now build in parallel — Hualong One 2.0 adds engineering/edge cuts (1217MW), Guohe One the world's largest passive PWR (1543MW). Together with the HTGR and Linglong One they give China a complete reactor spectrum end to end.",
    "2030 target of 110 GW under the 15th Five-Year Plan and overtaking the US before 2030 — backed by the Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy (joined 2026-03, 38 countries): China is the only one of them actually building at this pace."
  ],
  "signals": [],
  "caveats": [
    "Only figures traced to the NEA / CNEA / State Council / NDRC-NEA / listed-company announcements are exact; the ~¥500 billion ripple and a related secondary estimate are industry estimates attributed to Li Jinkai (Beijing Institute of Technology) and Founder Securities respectively.",
    "commercial-unit counts move monthly (59 @2025-11 → 62 @2026-06); the UI headline uses the 2026-06 NEA figure.",
    "The ~125 GW figure counts reactors in operation plus those approved or under construction (112 units, end-2025). It is not installed capacity; operating capacity was 66.14 GW in June 2026.",
    "Hualong One counts (10 in commercial operation + 37 under construction/approved) blend domestic + overseas units (Pakistan/Karachi, etc.); not purely China-domestic."
  ],
  "generated_at": "2026-10-14T10:17:16"
}