{ "as_of": "2026-06", "name": "Electricity spot market", "source": "National Energy Administration (NEA) press conferences 2026-07-30 (H1 2026 trading volumes), 2026-01-30 & 2025-11-05; NEA 2025 China Electricity Market Development Report; NDRC + NEA notice on Yunxiao DC transmission-rights trading (2026-06-02); State Council General Office implementation opinions on the unified power market (2026-02-11); NDRC + NEA guiding opinions (2022); People's Daily, China National Radio Voice of China / CCTV, China News Service, Shanxi Development and Reform Commission", "sources": [ "NEA press conference 2026-07-30 (https://www.nea.gov.cn/20260730/3ce671c387574eeeb120fc3825be0399/c.html): H1 2026 market-traded electricity 3,684.8 TWh (+24.2%); medium- and long-term contracts 3,256.8 TWh (88.4%); spot 428.0 TWh", "NEA monthly power-market trading release for Jan-Nov 2025, as summarised by China News Service 2025-12-25 (https://www.chinanews.com/cj/2025/12-25/10539928.shtml; secondary, page not loaded, figures from search summaries): spot 261.3 TWh of 6,030 TWh traded", "NDRC + NEA, Notice on market-based trading of transmission rights on the Yunxiao DC line (NDRC System Reform [2026] No. 734), published 2026-06-02 (https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz/202606/t20260602_1405666.html)", "General Office of the State Council, Implementation Opinions on Improving the National Unified Power Market System (State Council General Office [2026] No. 4), published 2026-02-11 (read on the Hunan provincial government mirror: http://www.hunan.gov.cn/zqt/zcsd/202602/t20260212_33915878.html)", "NDRC + NEA, Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a National Unified Power Market System (NDRC System Reform [2022] No. 118) (https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2022-01/30/content_5671296.htm)", "The \"2025 China Electricity Market Development Report\" (China Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute (EPPEI) / NEA Department of Market Supervision, released June 2026; reported by China Energy News 2026-06-15): national unified power market system initially established; provincial spot markets essentially at full coverage; the '1+6' basic rule system; Southern regional power market in continuous-settlement trial operation; new energy (wind + solar) fully entering the market", "NEA press conference 2026-01-30: 2025 nationwide market-traded electricity 6,640 TWh (+7.4%); market-based trading above 60% of the total for the fourth straight year", "NEA press conference 2025-11-05 (Voice of China, on negative prices): spot-traded volume is generally within 10% of the total; medium- and long-term contracts secure generators' baseline volume and price", "Shanxi Development and Reform Commission 2025-12: new-energy mechanism-price auction (wind 0.28466 yuan/kWh, among others)", "Shanxi electricity spot market began uninterrupted operation in 2021-04; 45 consecutive months of stable operation; cumulative traded volume passed 1,000 TWh (2025-01)", "People's Daily Overseas Edition 2026-06: in 21 provinces/regions new energy bids both quantity and price into spot; Shandong became the second province nationally with user-side quantity-and-price bidding", "EPPEI / China Energy Media: 2025 thermal generation 6,330 TWh, the first decline in a decade (-0.7%); wind + solar generation 2,300 TWh (+25.8%), 22% of total generation", "Southern regional power market began continuous-settlement trial operation in 2025 (routine State Grid / China Southern Power Grid cross-operating-area trading: 3.4 TWh)" ], "h1_2026": { "label": "Market-traded electricity, first half of 2026", "short_label": "H1 2026", "period": "2026-01 to 2026-06", "market_traded_twh": 3684.8, "market_traded_yoy_pct": 24.2, "medium_long_term_twh": 3256.8, "medium_long_term_share_pct": 88.4, "spot_twh": 428.0, "spot_share_pct": 11.6, "spot_share_computed": true, "raw_100m_kwh": { "market_traded": 36848, "medium_long_term": 32568, "spot": 4280 }, "publisher": "National Energy Administration (NEA)", "title": "NEA press conference transcript, 30 July 2026", "url": "https://www.nea.gov.cn/20260730/3ce671c387574eeeb120fc3825be0399/c.html", "published": "2026-07-30", "confidence": "verified", "excerpt": "上半年中长期交易电量达到32568亿千瓦时，占市场交易电量比重88.4%。现货交易电量4280亿千瓦时", "notes": "Stated by Zhang Xing, deputy director of NEA's general affairs department. NEA gives volumes in 100 million kWh (36,848 / 32,568 / 4,280); TWh = that / 10. NEA splits traded volume into medium- and long-term contracts and spot only; there is no separate 'short-term' category. The spot share is our arithmetic (4,280 / 36,848 = 11.6%, the same as 100% minus NEA's 88.4%)." }, "spot_share_2025_jan_nov": { "label": "Spot share of market-traded electricity, January to November 2025", "short_label": "Jan–Nov 2025", "period": "2025-01 to 2025-11", "spot_share_pct": 4.3, "approx": true, "spot_twh": 261.3, "market_traded_twh": 6030, "raw_100m_kwh": { "market_traded": 60300, "spot": 2613 }, "publisher": "NEA monthly power-market trading release, as summarised by China News Service", "title": "January to November 2025 national power-market trading", "url": "https://www.chinanews.com/cj/2025/12-25/10539928.shtml", "published": "2025-12-25", "confidence": "secondary", "notes": "The China News Service page did not load for us; the volumes come from search-engine summaries of it. The share is our arithmetic (2,613 / 60,300 ≈ 4.3%). A full-year 2025 spot volume from NEA was not found. It is consistent with the 2025 market report's 95.7% medium- and long-term share." }, "policy": { "transmission_rights_yunxiao": { "label": "Transmission-rights trading on the Yunxiao DC line", "title": "Notice on market-based trading of transmission rights on the Yunxiao DC line", "title_zh": "关于在云霄直流开展输电权市场化交易的通知", "doc_no": "NDRC System Reform [2026] No. 734", "doc_no_zh": "发改体改〔2026〕734号", "publisher": "National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and National Energy Administration (NEA)", "signed": "2026-05-21", "published": "2026-06-02", "effective": "2026-06-01", "period": "from 2026-06-01", "url": "https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz/202606/t20260602_1405666.html", "confidence": "verified", "excerpt": "自2026年6月1日起，按照《云霄直流输电权市场化交易方案(暂行)》，以月度及以内交易起步，在云霄直流通道开展输电权市场化交易。", "summary": "From 1 June 2026, the right to use capacity on the Yunxiao DC line between Fujian and Guangdong (the link between the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid systems) is traded in a market, starting with monthly and shorter trades. Grid companies must give all types of market entities equal access.", "not_claimed": "The notice does not single out private companies, and it does not describe the mechanism as a capacity auction; the bidding and pricing rules sit in an attached scheme we did not read." }, "unified_market_2030": { "label": "A unified national power market by 2030", "target_year": 2030, "market_traded_share_target_pct": 70, "market_traded_share_target_approx": true, "spot_formal_operation_before": 2027, "summary": "By 2030: basically complete the national unified power market; all types of generators, and all electricity users except guaranteed-supply users, trade directly in the market; market-traded electricity about 70% of total consumption. Provincial spot markets are to be basically in formal operation before 2027.", "docs": [ { "label": "2026 implementation opinions", "title": "Implementation Opinions on Improving the National Unified Power Market System", "title_zh": "国务院办公厅关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见", "doc_no": "State Council General Office [2026] No. 4", "doc_no_zh": "国办发〔2026〕4号", "publisher": "General Office of the State Council", "signed": "2026-02-08", "published": "2026-02-11", "period": "targets for 2027, 2030 and 2035", "url": "http://www.hunan.gov.cn/zqt/zcsd/202602/t20260212_33915878.html", "url_note": "Read on the Hunan provincial government mirror; the gov.cn original did not load for us.", "confidence": "verified", "excerpt": "到2030年，基本建成全国统一电力市场体系，各类型电源和除保障性用户外的电力用户全部直接参与电力市场，市场化交易电量占全社会用电量的70%左右。", "summary": "By 2030 basically complete the unified market; all generators and all non-guaranteed users trade directly; market-traded electricity about 70% of total consumption. Spot markets basically in formal operation before 2027; the system fully built by 2035." }, { "label": "2022 guiding opinions", "title": "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a National Unified Power Market System", "title_zh": "关于加快建设全国统一电力市场体系的指导意见", "doc_no": "NDRC System Reform [2022] No. 118", "doc_no_zh": "发改体改〔2022〕118号", "publisher": "National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and National Energy Administration (NEA)", "signed": "2022-01-18", "published": "2022-01-30", "period": "targets for 2025 and 2030", "url": "https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2022-01/30/content_5671296.htm", "confidence": "verified", "excerpt": "到2030年，全国统一电力市场体系基本建成，适应新型电力系统要求，国家市场与省（区、市）/区域市场联合运行，新能源全面参与市场交易", "summary": "By 2030 the unified market is basically built, the national market runs jointly with provincial and regional markets, and new energy takes part in market trading across the board." } ] } }, "summary": { "note": "The market dimension of the buildout: how much power is auctioned rather than contracted, and what prices emerge as renewable supply overtakes demand. Spot is the price-discovery layer; medium- and long-term contracts carry most of the volume (88.4% in H1 2026, about 95.7% in 2025).", "market_volume_twh_2025": { "value_twh": 66400, "exact": false, "pct_growth_yoy": "+7.4%", "share_of_consumption_above_pct": 60, "years_above_in_a_row": 4, "source": "NEA press conference, 2026-01-30", "note": "Nationwide power-market traded volume (value_twh is in units of 100 million kWh: 66,400 = 6,640 TWh); market-based share above 60% for the fourth straight year" }, "medium_long_term_share_2025": { "pct": 95.7, "twh": 63500, "source": "2025 China Electricity Market Development Report (NEA), June 2026", "note": "Medium- and long-term traded volume as a share of total market-based trading (twh is in units of 100 million kWh: 63,500 = 6,350 TWh)" }, "spot_share_pct": { "pct": 10, "period": "2025-11 (NEA statement)", "note": "Spot-traded volume is generally within 10% of the total (Zhang Yanqin, NEA deputy department director, 2025-11)", "note2": "Medium- and long-term contracts secure generators' 'baseline' volume and price; spot is the price-discovery layer" }, "wind_solar_gen_twh_2025": { "wind_twh": 11300, "solar_twh": 11700, "total_twh": 23000, "pct_growth_yoy": "+25.8%", "pct_of_total_gen": 22, "source": "EPPEI / China Energy Media", "note": "Wind + solar share of generation up about 3.6 percentage points y/y (twh fields are in units of 100 million kWh: wind 1,130 TWh, solar 1,170 TWh, total 2,300 TWh)" }, "thermal_gen_twh_2025": { "twh": 63300, "pct_growth_yoy": "-0.7%", "source": "EPPEI / China Energy Media", "note": "Thermal generation fell for the first time in a decade (twh is in units of 100 million kWh: 63,300 = 6,330 TWh)" }, "renewable_new_gen_twh_2025": { "twh": 5193, "note": "new renewable generation already covers the entire increase in society-wide electricity consumption" }, "storages": { "installed_gw": 136, "installed_gwh": 351, "period": "end-2025", "growth_vs_end_2020_more_than_x": 40, "basis": "cumulative installed", "source": "NEA 2025 China Electricity Market Development Report, as reported by China Energy News (2026-06-15)", "source_url": "https://paper.people.com.cn/zgnyb/pc/content/202606/15/content_30163607.html", "note": "Cumulative installed new-type energy storage (excludes pumped hydro; mostly lithium-ion batteries) in operation at end-2025, more than 40 times the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2020). This is the installed fleet, not the year's additions.", "vpp_gw": 16, "v2g_gw": 19 }, "clearing_5min": { "note": "Real-time market clears every 5 minutes; trading frequency up from 96 to 288 times per day (2025: western Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Jiangxi, Shanxi)", "clears_per_day_from": 96, "clears_per_day_to": 288, "provinces": [ "western Inner Mongolia", "Zhejiang", "Chongqing", "Jiangxi", "Shanxi" ] }, "renewable_bidding_provinces": 21, "user_side_bidding": [ "Gansu", "Shandong" ], "probing_players_2025": { "from": 47000, "to": 81000, "note": "Number of market participants grew from about 47,000 to 81,000 during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25), roughly 1.7 times" } }, "negative_pricing": { "note": "Negative prices (负电价), spot clearing below zero, are a supply-surplus signal. On-grid (generation-side) prices can go negative when renewables bid near-zero operating cost to earn dispatch; user-side bills still include transmission-and-distribution charges and government fund surcharges, so no end user sees a negative bill. NEA: a price-discovery signal, not a loss signal; medium- and long-term contracts + installed-capacity subsidies + the coal-power capacity price keep overall generation revenue positive.", "first_occurrence": { "province": "Shandong", "year": 2019, "price_yuan_kwh": "-0.04" }, "systemic_timeline_2025": [ { "province": "Zhejiang", "month": "2025-01", "detail": "-0.2 yuan/kWh on two consecutive days" }, { "province": "western Inner Mongolia", "month": "2025-04", "detail": "low of -0.004 yuan/kWh" }, { "province": "Sichuan", "month": "2025-09", "detail": "negative prices all day; highest clearing price -34.8787 yuan/MWh, lowest -50 yuan/MWh" } ], "sichuan_sep2025": { "note": "Late-September all-day negative prices in Sichuan, a hydro-heavy province (hydro is 73% of installed capacity): September on-grid hydro output +34.7% y/y and wind + solar +28.7%, while grid-supplied consumption fell 18.1% y/y", "hydro_share_pct": 73 }, "germany_2024": { "neg_hours": 468, "pct_of_year": 5, "note": "reference: even in Germany negative prices hit 468 hours (5%) in 2024" }, "ea_response": "Zhang Yanqin, NEA: negative prices are a direct expression of time-of-day imbalances between supply and demand in the power market, and a direct reflection, through spot prices, of how new energy is being absorbed. As new energy fully enters the market, negative prices will appear more often, but the vast majority of provinces set a price floor of 0 yuan/kWh; only Shandong, Inner Mongolia and a few others allow negative prices." }, "highlights": [ "Spot is growing fast. In H1 2026 spot trading was 428.0 TWh, 11.6% of the 3,684.8 TWh traded (our arithmetic from NEA's volumes), against about 4.3% in January to November 2025 (secondary figure).", "Medium- and long-term contracts are still the floor: 88.4% of H1 2026 traded volume (3,256.8 TWh), down from about 95.7% for 2025 as a whole. They guarantee generators their revenue base while spot sets the marginal price.", "The market exists at national scale: by end-2025 the unified spot framework ('1+6' rule system) reached near-full provincial coverage, the southern region ran continuous settlement trials, and 21 provinces/regions let renewables bid both quantity and price into spot.", "Policy keeps widening it. Since 1 June 2026 transmission rights on the Yunxiao DC line between Fujian and Guangdong have traded in a market open to all market entities, and a 2026 State Council General Office policy targets market-traded power at about 70% of consumption by 2030.", "The demand signal: 2025 renewables added 519.3 TWh of output, covering the ENTIRE new electricity demand; thermal generation fell for the first time in a decade (-0.7%) to 6,330 TWh, while wind+solar hit 22% of generation (+25.8%).", "Clearing is getting finer: 5-minute real-time settlement (96→288 clears/day in western Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Jiangxi and Shanxi) — a prerequisite for high-renewable grids.", "Negative prices have gone systemic as a supply-surplus signal: Shandong's first sub-zero in 2019 → 2025's Zhejiang (Jan), western Inner Mongolia (Apr), and Sichuan's all-day negative clearing in Sept — a direct read of renewables outrunning local demand in surplus hours.", "NEA's framing: negative price is a signal light, not a loss — medium- and long-term contracts + installed-capacity subsidies + the coal-power capacity price keep aggregate generation revenue positive (e.g. Sichuan hydro's average settlement price in late September, 183 yuan/MWh, even beat the monthly average of 177 yuan/MWh)." ], "caveats": [ "The H1 2026 spot share (11.6%) is our arithmetic from NEA's stated volumes (4,280 / 36,848, in 100 million kWh); NEA states the medium- and long-term share (88.4%) directly.", "The 2025 comparison (about 4.3%) covers January to November 2025 and comes from search summaries of a China News Service report on NEA data (secondary). Spot volume is seasonal, so treat the jump as indicative until NEA publishes a full-year 2026 split.", "NEA splits traded volume into medium- and long-term contracts and spot only; it has no 'short-term' category. In November 2025 NEA described spot as generally within 10% of traded volume; H1 2026 came in above that.", "Spot clearing prices are only the on-grid (generation-side) component; user-side bills add transmission-and-distribution tariffs + government fund surcharges, so end-users do not see negative bills.", "Negative-price figures are regional spot clearing data reported by NEA/CCTV; they are not a nationally consolidated negative-pricing statistic.", "6,640 TWh (total market volume) and 6,350 TWh (medium- and long-term volume) come from different NEA releases — do not conflate.", "The 2025 annual figures span 2025-reporting-year releases (2026-01 to 2026-06); treat them as the 2025 annual market snapshot. The H1 2026 block is the latest half-year release.", "The Yunxiao DC notice opens transmission-rights trading to all types of market entities; it does not single out private companies or describe a capacity auction." ], "generated_at": "2026-10-14T10:17:16" }