# Nuclear — the baseload constant

China's dispatchable backbone. Wind and solar are the surge — nuclear is the **stone**: 24/7,
weather-free, zero-carbon. It's ~4.6% of generation today but the only non-fossil baseload that can
hold the grid still as wind and solar near half of installed capacity. Counting reactors under
construction, China's program is already the world's largest; its operating fleet is expected to overtake
the US before 2030, and the 15th Five-Year Plan (十五五, 2026-30) target of about 110 GW is about 66% above
June 2026's 66.14 GW. (as of 2026-08)

## Headline facts

- **Fleet (2026-06, National Energy Administration):** 62 commercial units / **66.14 GW (+8.6% y/y)** in
  operation; a further **53 approved / under construction (62.93 GW, end-2025)**.
- **The ~125 GW figure is not installed capacity.** It adds reactors in operation (59 units at end-2025)
  to those approved or under construction (53 units): **112 units, about 125 GW** (Yicai, 25 Jun 2026,
  https://www.yicai.com/news/103246778.html; earlier People's Daily, Nov 2025 · secondary).
- **Generation (2025):** **485.2 TWh (+7.6%)**, ~4.6% of national output and 11.4% of non-fossil —
  with the system's highest load factor (**89.1%**, avg 7,809h utilization, +126h y/y).
- **The approvals engine:** since the 2019 restart, **64 units approved, >¥1 trillion cumulative direct investment** —
  from intermittent to normalized approvals.
- **Reactors approved per year (State Council executive meetings):**

  | Year | Units | Meeting dates |
  | --- | --- | --- |
  | 2022 | 10 | 2022-04-20, 2022-09-13 |
  | 2023 | 10 | 2023-07-31, 2023-12-29 |
  | 2024 | 11 | 2024-08-19 |
  | 2025 | 10 | 2025-04-27 |

  At least 10 a year in each of 2022–2025; the first 2026 batch (31 July) was 8. Yearly totals as
  tallied by Yicai (https://www.yicai.com/news/102592672.html, 28 Apr 2025 · secondary); 2025 is the
  single 27 April batch of 10 units.
- **Fresh catalyst (2026-07-31):** the **15th Five-Year Plan first batch** — a State Council executive meeting approved
  **8 units / 4 projects, >¥170 billion**: Zhuanghe 1-2 (Liaoning) & Jinqimen 3-4 (Zhejiang) (Hualong One),
  Huizhou 5-6 (**Hualong One 2.0**, 1217MW), Laiyang 1-2 (Shandong) (**Guohe One**, 1543MW). Ripple econ
  ~¥500 billion (Li Jinkai, Beijing Institute of Technology est.).
- **2030 target:** **~110 GW** operating (the "15th Five-Year Plan for New-Type Power System Construction",
  NDRC Energy [2026] No. 942, 2026-08-03) — the *China Nuclear Energy Development Report (2026)* says operating
  scale should **surpass the US before 2030**.
- **Global context:** China **joined the Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy in 2026-03** (38 countries; triple
  2020 capacity by 2050) — the only member actually building at this pace.

## Two fully-indigenous three-gen lines in parallel

- **Hualong One:** world's largest third-gen PWR fleet — **10 commercial + 37 in construction/approved**
  (domestic + overseas). Fuqing 5 (global first) passed 1,000 continuous safe days, ~37 TWh delivered.
- **Guohe One (CAP1400):** world's largest passive PWR (1543MW/unit) — the north-coast large-capacity complement
  to Hualong One.

## The complete spectrum

- **High-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR):** the world's first commercial Gen-IV reactor (Shidaowan) entered
  service 2023.
- **Linglong One (ACP100):** the world's first IAEA-reviewed land SMR (Changjiang, Hainan) — core equipment in
  commissioning, grid connection expected **2026** (~1 TWh/yr, ~520,000 households in Hainan).
- Together with Hualong One / Guohe One they span large-PWR → industrial-heat → small-modular.

## Who's building it — operators, H1 2026

- **CNNC (601985, H1 2026 announcement, 2026-07-03):** controlled **27 in-op units / 26.212 GW** +
  **18 under construction / approved (20.675 GW)**. H1 2026 company generation **119.669 TWh
  (−1.73%)**, nuclear 97.972 TWh (−1.89%), avg 3,738h. **Zhangzhou 2 entered commercial operation 2026-01-01**
  (first 2026 unit) → Zhangzhou plant +60.8%;
- **CGN — Hualong One serial build (China Daily 2026-03-05):** **18 units under construction**; Taipingling 1
  (Guangdong) grid-connected (the first Hualong One clean power for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area);
  San'ao 1 (Zhejiang) fuel loaded + first turbine roll on nuclear steam achieved → final push to grid connection;
  **Hualong One 2.0 demonstration project secured, 3.0 being planned**.
- Together the two operators account for the bulk of the national **62 in operation + 53 approved / under construction** totals.

## Why it matters

1. The only zero-carbon dispatchable stone: smooths wind/solar intermittency (now ~47% of installed) with no
   curtailment, no ramp stress — the grid's baseload insurance.
2. A durable capex supercycle: 64 units approved since 2019 (>¥1 trillion direct) heading into a "double peak" —
   ~44 GW of commissioning runway 2026-30 while construction stays at record levels.
3. Standardization is the compounding edge: two indigenous PWR lines + HTGR + SMR built in parallel on serialized
   schedules — China is unique in executing batch-built reactors at this rate.
4. 2030 target ~110 GW + US-overtake + Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy membership: nuclear is no longer an
   afterthought of the buildout — it is the mechanism that lets the renewables surge stay cheap and stable.

## Caveats

- Only figures traced to the NEA / CNEA / State Council / NDRC / listed-company announcements are exact; the
  "~¥500 billion ripple" and similar are industry estimates (attributed to Li Jinkai · Founder Securities).
- Commercial-unit counts move monthly (59 @2025-11 → 62 @2026-06); the UI headline uses the 2026-06 NEA figure.
- The ~125 GW total counts operating plus approved / under-construction reactors (end-2025); operating capacity
  alone was 66.14 GW in June 2026.
- Hualong One counts blend domestic + overseas (Pakistan / Karachi, etc.); not purely China-domestic.

_Sources: National Energy Administration (NEA); China Nuclear Energy Association (CNEA), *China Nuclear Energy
Development Report (2026)*; State Council executive meeting 2026-07-31; NDRC Energy [2026] No. 942;
21st Century Business Herald; CGN / CNNC company announcements; National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA)
monthly operating reports; People's Daily; Xinhua._